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Control variates : ウィキペディア英語版
Control variates
The control variates method is a variance reduction technique used in Monte Carlo methods. It exploits information about the errors in estimates of known quantities to reduce the error of an estimate of an unknown quantity.〔Glasserman, P. (2004). ''Monte Carlo Methods in Financial Engineering''. New York: Springer. ISBN 0-387-00451-3 (p. 185)〕
==Underlying principle==
Let the unknown parameter of interest be \mu, and assume we have a statistic m such that the expected value of ''m'' is μ: \mathbb\left()=\mu, i.e. ''m'' is an unbiased estimator for μ. Suppose we calculate another statistic t such that \mathbb\left()=\tau is a known value. Then
:m^\star = m + c\left(t-\tau\right) \,
is also an unbiased estimator for \mu for any choice of the coefficient c.
The variance of the resulting estimator m^ is
:\textrm\left(m^\right)=\textrm\left(m\right) + c^2\,\textrm\left(t\right) + 2c\,\textrm\left(m,t\right);
It can be shown that choosing the optimal coefficient
:c^\star = - \frac;
minimizes the variance of m^, and that with this choice,
:\begin
\textrm\left(m^\right) & =\textrm\left(m\right) - \frac\left(m,t\right)\right">)^2} \\
& = \left(1-\rho_^2\right)\textrm\left(m\right);
\end
where

:\rho_=\textrm\left(m,t\right); \,
is the correlation coefficient of ''m'' and ''t''. The greater the value of \vert\rho_\vert, the greater the variance reduction achieved.
In the case that \textrm\left(m,t\right), \textrm\left(t\right), and/or \rho_\; are unknown, they can be estimated across the Monte Carlo replicates. This is equivalent to solving a certain least squares system; therefore this technique is also known as regression sampling.

抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア(Wikipedia)
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